Haitong Securities·2024-04-18 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.717 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 60.23%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 6.614 billion yuan, up 111.27% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.364 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 29.51%, but a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year [5][6] - The company has a robust integrated layout in the aluminum industry, with ongoing projects such as the 2 million-ton alumina project in Guangxi and a 1,200 MW source-network-load-storage project in Baotou [6] - The company aims to optimize its asset structure, achieving a reduction in carbon emissions by 1.25 million tons in 2023, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.30%, down 5.37% from the beginning of the year [6][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 225.071 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.7% year-on-year. The net profit was 6.717 billion yuan, reflecting a 60.2% increase year-on-year. The EPS for 2023 was 0.39 yuan [7][12] - The gross profit margin improved to 12.9% in 2023, compared to 11.5% in 2022, while the net asset return rate increased to 11.1% [7][12] Production and Pricing - The production of primary aluminum (including alloys) and alumina in 2023 was 6.79 million tons and 16.67 million tons, respectively, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% and 5.5%. The average price of A00 aluminum was 18,696 yuan per ton, down 6.5% year-on-year [5][6] - The company expects stable growth in aluminum production, with projected sales of 6.99 million tons in 2024, 7.13 million tons in 2025, and 7.20 million tons in 2026 [8][9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from its integrated layout in the aluminum industry, with projected EPS of 0.54, 0.65, and 0.79 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The estimated reasonable value range for 2024 is between 8.1 and 9.18 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 15-17 times [6][10][12]