产业演进视角看“消费降级”：买方时代，零售、品牌结构重塑

Investment Rating - Overweight (maintained) [1] Core Views - The so-called "consumption downgrade" is influenced by economic cycles but is more fundamentally driven by the oversupply of goods and retailers, coupled with the rise of consumer bargaining power, leading to a reshaping of the industrial structure [1] - In the buyer's era, retailers must focus on price competition to survive, while brand manufacturers will experience K-shaped differentiation [1] - The past "consumption upgrade" was more about consumption differentiation and inflation, where consumers were forced to accept higher-priced products due to limited choices [1] - The current "consumption downgrade" reflects the adjustment of a distorted industrial structure as consumer bargaining power increases, leading to a shift in value distribution towards consumers [1] - Retailers must reposition themselves to serve consumers by reducing transaction costs, both implicitly (ease of decision-making) and explicitly (offering cost-effective products) [1] - The rise of Pinduoduo and discount snack stores represents the replacement of inefficient retail organizations by more efficient ones, focusing on consumer benefits rather than merchant interests [2] - Brand manufacturers face a broken pricing logic as retailers compress margins, leading to a K-shaped differentiation in the industry [2] Retailers: Returning to the Core, Focusing on Reducing Transaction Costs - Retailers must shift from serving merchants to serving consumers, with their core value lying in reducing transaction costs [6] - The essence of retailing is to match supply with demand while minimizing transaction costs, which include both explicit (supply chain costs) and implicit (consumer cognitive costs) factors [9] - In the early stages, consumer cognitive costs are more critical, but as information symmetry improves, supply chain efficiency becomes the long-term strategy [10] - Retailers like Costco exemplify the value of reducing transaction costs by focusing on consumer benefits, such as low pricing and high efficiency [13] - Chinese retailers are still stuck in the seller's era, focusing on serving merchants rather than consumers, which has led to inefficiencies and weak profitability [17] - The "consumption downgrade" is a return to the essence of retailing in the buyer's era, where retailers must offer lower prices or more cost-effective products to survive [24] Brand Manufacturers: K-Shaped Differentiation - The golden era for brand manufacturers may be over, as retailers gain more bargaining power and challenge their pricing strategies [28] - The rise of private labels and the decline of brand loyalty in certain categories will lead to a K-shaped differentiation, where only strong brands with unique value propositions will survive [32] - Functional products with low differentiation and weak brand value are more likely to be replaced by private labels, while brands with strong social or emotional value will remain resilient [37] - Brand manufacturers must focus on innovation and emotional branding to maintain their relevance in the face of retailer challenges [41] Industry Trends - The shift towards a buyer's market will lead to increased competition among retailers, forcing them to optimize supply chains and reduce costs [6] - The rise of efficient retail organizations like Pinduoduo and discount snack stores will continue to disrupt traditional retail models [24] - The concentration of retailers and their increasing bargaining power will limit the pricing ability of brand manufacturers, leading to structural changes in the industry [30] - The future of the retail industry will see a K-shaped differentiation, with strong brands and efficient retailers thriving while weaker players are淘汰 [41]