Company Overview - The report focuses on Giant Biogene (2367 HK), a company specializing in recombinant collagen-based skincare products and rare ginsenoside-based health supplements [1] - The company is the first globally to achieve mass production of recombinant collagen skincare products and the first in China to obtain a medical device registration certificate for recombinant collagen products [3] - Giant Biogene has a portfolio of 8 major brands with over 100 product SKUs as of the end of 2023 [19] Industry Analysis Recombinant Collagen Market - The recombinant collagen market is expected to grow rapidly, with penetration increasing from 15 9% in 2017 to 62 3% by 2027 [2] - Recombinant collagen offers advantages over animal-derived collagen, including higher bioactivity, better biocompatibility, lower immunogenicity, and easier transportation and storage [13] - The market size for recombinant collagen in functional skincare, medical dressings, and skin rejuvenation is projected to reach 64 5 billion, 25 5 billion, and 12 1 billion yuan respectively by 2027, with a total market size of 108 3 billion yuan [17] Rare Ginsenoside Market - Rare ginsenosides, derived from ginseng, have stronger biological activity and are more easily absorbed by the human body compared to prototype ginsenosides [18] - The market size for rare ginsenoside-based health foods in China is expected to grow from 645 4 million yuan in 2021 to 1 56 billion yuan by 2027 [18] Business Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 3 52 billion yuan, a 49 05% year-on-year increase, and net profit of 1 45 billion yuan, a 44 59% increase [23] - The flagship brand Kefumei contributed 79 1% of total revenue, growing 72 9% year-on-year to 2 79 billion yuan [23] - The company's gross margin was 84 4% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 41 09% [23] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to obtain two new Class III medical device registrations in 2024 for recombinant collagen liquid and solid formulations, targeting anti-aging applications [4] - The company expanded its production capacity in 2023, adding 2 new recombinant collagen production lines, 4 cosmetic production lines, and 2 medical device production lines [22] - Online sales channels showed strong growth, with Kefumei and Kelijing achieving GMV growth rates exceeding 165% and 70% respectively during the 618 shopping festival [20] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 4 83 billion yuan in 2024 to 8 07 billion yuan in 2026, representing a CAGR of 29 52% [35] - Net profit is projected to increase from 1 80 billion yuan in 2024 to 2 76 billion yuan in 2026 [35] - EPS is expected to grow from 1 81 yuan in 2024 to 2 78 yuan in 2026 [35] Valuation - The report gives a 6-month target price of 61 54 yuan per share, representing a 21 74% upside from the current price [43] - The company is valued at 24X-35X PE, corresponding to a reasonable valuation range of 43 44-63 35 yuan per share [37] - Using DCF valuation, the intrinsic value per share is estimated at 63 62 yuan [39]
投资价值分析报告：重组胶原蛋白市场有望快速增长，公司明星产品实现口碑及销量增长