2023年报点评：严控成本，毛利率提升，大幅提高分红凸显价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huayang Co., Ltd. (600348) [1] Core Views - The company has effectively controlled costs, leading to an improvement in gross margin and a significant increase in dividends, highlighting its value [1][3] - The decline in performance for 2023 is primarily attributed to the drop in coal market prices and a decrease in coal production and sales volume [4][5] - The company is expected to see growth in production from new mines, with a projected increase of over 20% in output compared to 2023 once these mines reach full capacity [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 28.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.18 billion yuan, down 26.3% [3][4] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of 6.87 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1%, but a year-on-year decrease of 11.3% [3] - The average return on equity (ROE) for 2023 was 19.45%, a decrease of 11.94 percentage points year-on-year [3][7] Coal Production and Sales - In 2023, the company produced 45.91 million tons of coal, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the sales volume of commercial coal was 41 million tons, down 11.7% [5][6] - The average selling price of commercial coal was 606 yuan per ton, a decrease of 14.6% year-on-year, while the unit cost was 296 yuan per ton, down 18.9% [5][6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a cash dividend of 50%, with a per-share distribution of 0.718 yuan, totaling 2.59 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from 30% in 2022 [6][7] - The projected dividend payout ratio for the next three years is set to be no less than 30% of the annual distributable profits [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates operating revenues of 27.675 billion yuan, 30.921 billion yuan, and 32.641 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 4.896 billion yuan, 5.597 billion yuan, and 6.078 billion yuan [7][8] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.36 yuan, 1.55 yuan, and 1.68 yuan, respectively [7][8]