周期见底，改善显著

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 52.84 CNY and a target value of 63.00 CNY [9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from integrated logistics services and the expansion of its chemical distribution services, which will drive continuous performance release. The warehousing and distribution business, as the main profit driver, is in a ramp-up phase with new warehouses launched in 2023, indicating significant profit potential [5][10]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.896 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 23.26%, and a net profit of 151 million CNY, up 40.62% year-on-year, indicating a strong recovery [10][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company is a leading provider of integrated supply chain services in China, focusing on logistics for chemical products and gradually forming a comprehensive service system for the chemical and new energy industries [21]. 2. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 9.753 billion CNY, down 15.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million CNY, down 28.72% year-on-year. The decline was attributed to cyclical fluctuations and rising financial costs [33][45]. - The Q4 2023 results showed a revenue of 2.126 billion CNY, down 14.35% year-on-year, and a net profit of 28 million CNY, down 77.95% year-on-year [33]. 3. Segment Analysis - Global Freight Forwarding: In 2023, this segment generated a revenue of 2.223 billion CNY, down 41% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 267 million CNY [27][62]. - Global Mobility: This segment saw a revenue decline of 33% in 2023, with a gross profit of 104 million CNY [51]. - Regional Warehousing and Distribution: This segment reported a revenue of 696 million CNY, down 4% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 333 million CNY, maintaining a gross margin of 47.87% [74]. - Domestic Trade Delivery: This segment achieved a revenue of 1.848 billion CNY, up 7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 154 million CNY [77]. - Unique Distribution: This segment generated a revenue of 4.321 billion CNY, down 0.63% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 278 million CNY [79]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to see EPS of 3.50, 4.25, and 5.00 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a target PE of 18 times for 2024, leading to a fair value of 63 CNY per share [34][85].