房地产行业美国房地产市场研究系列一：降息预期持续波动，美国房地产市场如何表现

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the US real estate market, suggesting that the market is likely to experience a moderate recovery in 2024 with a slight decline in mortgage rates [1] Core Views - The US real estate market is currently experiencing a contraction in volume but stable prices due to high mortgage rates, which constrain both supply and demand [1] - The market's future performance is highly dependent on the trajectory of mortgage rates, with potential scenarios ranging from continued contraction to a significant rebound depending on the extent of rate cuts [1][7][8] Supply Side Analysis Short-term Supply Dynamics - The supply of existing homes is constrained by the "lock-in effect" of high mortgage rates, with inventory levels remaining low [1][11] - As of February 2024, the inventory cycle for existing homes is 2.9 months, while new homes have an 8.4-month inventory cycle [1] - A reduction in mortgage rates could lead to a release of locked-in supply, particularly for existing homes [1][11] Long-term Supply Constraints - The US housing market has been undersupplied since 2012, with a shortage of approximately 3.8 million homes as of 2020 [1] - Long-term supply constraints are driven by land availability, regulatory approvals, and an aging housing stock, with nearly half of existing homes built before 1980 [1][28][32] Demand Side Analysis Short-term Demand Dynamics - High mortgage rates have pushed affordability metrics, such as the price-to-income ratio, to historically high levels, suppressing demand [1][6] - A reduction in mortgage rates could alleviate affordability pressures and stimulate demand, even if home prices rise slightly [1][6] Medium-term Demand Support - Demographic factors, such as the growing population of millennials and baby boomers, provide a solid foundation for housing demand [1][41][46] - The US household balance sheet remains healthy, with a relatively low debt-to-income ratio, reducing the risk of a demand collapse [1][50] Market Scenarios Scenario 1: High Mortgage Rates Persist - If mortgage rates remain above 6.5%, the market is likely to continue experiencing volume contraction with stable or slightly declining prices [7][8] Scenario 2: Moderate Decline in Mortgage Rates - A moderate decline in mortgage rates (to 6.0%-6.5%) could lead to a mild recovery in both volume and prices, with new and existing home sales increasing slightly [7][8] Scenario 3: Significant Decline in Mortgage Rates - A significant decline in mortgage rates (below 6%) could trigger a strong rebound in both volume and prices, with existing homes likely outperforming new homes [7][8] Long-term Market Cycle - The US real estate market follows an 18-year cycle, with the current cycle beginning in 2012 and expected to peak around 2026 [60][62] - The market is currently in the latter stages of the upward phase, with prices having risen significantly since 2020 [62]