新增产能陆续落地，老挝新矿接续成长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a target price of 7.97 CNY for the company and adjusts the investment rating to "Accumulate" [1][2]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 4.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 740 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17%. The EPS is estimated at 0.59 CNY per share, with a three-year CAGR of 23% [1][10]. - The company has diversified its product offerings with new projects in Laos, including a 1 million tons/year potassium chloride project and a 400,000 tons/year granular potassium project, which are expected to enhance its growth trajectory [10][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue is forecasted to be 4.1 billion CNY in 2024, 4.4 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.3 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 3%, 7%, and 20% [1][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 740 million CNY in 2024, 880 million CNY in 2025, and 1.17 billion CNY in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 34% respectively [1][12]. - The company’s EBITDA is expected to increase from 1.739 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.269 billion CNY in 2026 [12]. - The report indicates a decrease in the company's net profit in 2023 to 634 million CNY, down 23% year-on-year, primarily due to asset and credit impairment losses [10][19]. Production Capacity and Market Outlook - The company aims to achieve a potassium chloride production capacity of 1.1 million tons in 2024, with plans to expand to 2 million tons by 2026 [11][12]. - The global potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain relatively balanced in 2024, with price pressures anticipated, but the company's production growth is expected to offset these challenges [11][12].