DHE(SZ:002221) Haitong Securities·2024-04-21 02:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Donghua Energy is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.123 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 7.11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 151 million yuan, a significant increase of 255.22% [5]. - The Maoming project is set to contribute to performance, with the PDH and PP units expected to start trial production in September 2023, and the 200,000 tons/year ammonia synthesis unit is also preparing for trial production [5]. - The company is actively promoting carbon fiber research and plans to start the first phase of the carbon fiber project in 2024 [6]. - A high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power station is being constructed in Maoming to achieve green and low-carbon development [6]. Financial Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Donghua Energy from 2024 to 2026 are as follows: - 2024: Net profit of 281 million yuan, EPS of 0.18 yuan - 2025: Net profit of 511 million yuan, EPS of 0.32 yuan - 2026: Net profit of 1.075 billion yuan, EPS of 0.68 yuan [7]. - The projected revenue for 2024 is 29.186 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 5.6% in 2023 to 8.8% in 2026 [11]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue from polypropylene is projected to increase from 4.88 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.75 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin improvement from 4% to 8% [9]. - The revenue from propylene is expected to recover from a loss of 0.09 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 0.58 billion yuan in 2024 [9]. Valuation - The estimated reasonable value range for Donghua Energy is between 12.49 and 13.19 yuan, based on a PB ratio of 1.8-1.9 times for 2023 [7].