Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][3] Core Views - The sales performance of the company met expectations, with a high single-digit year-on-year growth in the main brand's total channel revenue for Q1 2024, driven primarily by sales volume growth [2] - The company has seen strong growth in its new brands, with all four new brands achieving over 50% growth in Q1 2024, indicating a successful strategy to create a second growth curve [2][3] - The inventory levels are healthy, with a discount rate gradually improving, and the company expects to maintain double-digit growth guidance for the main brand throughout the year [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2024, the main brand's total channel revenue grew by a high single-digit percentage year-on-year, with stable pricing and significant sales volume growth [2] - The children's clothing segment outperformed the adult segment, with approximately 10% growth in revenue, while e-commerce growth exceeded 25% [2] New Brand Development - The professional sports division's brands, such as Saucony and Myle, saw a revenue increase of 98.9% to 800 million yuan, while fashion sports brands like Gaiswei and Paladin grew by 14.3% to 1.6 billion yuan [2] - Saucony has established a strong position in the high-end running market, with an average monthly store efficiency of 300,000 yuan [2][3] Inventory and Discount Management - The main brand's discount rate was between 70-75% in Q1, with an inventory turnover ratio of 4-4.5 months, indicating a healthy inventory level [2] - The company anticipates a further reduction in inventory turnover to around 4 months in Q2, which will support an increase in discount rates to 75% [2] Market Strategy - The company focuses on third- and fourth-tier cities, with over 70% of its stores located in lower-tier markets, leveraging its first-mover advantage [3] - The average monthly store efficiency for the main brand is approximately 195,000 yuan, with upgraded stores performing significantly better [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 12.93 billion yuan for FY2022, 14.35 billion yuan for FY2023, and 15.99 billion yuan for FY2024, with corresponding net profits of 922 million yuan, 1.03 billion yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan [9][4] - The projected PE ratios for FY2024 to FY2026 are 12, 11, and 9 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4]
销售表现符合预期，库存及折扣率稳步改善