Monetary Policy and Market Trends - In April 2024, the central bank's MLF operation scale was set at 100 billion yuan, 70 billion yuan less than the maturing amount, with a bidding rate of 2.5%[44] - The one-year interbank certificate of deposit rate has fallen to approximately 2.05%, creating a nearly 45 basis point inversion with the MLF rate[44] - The US dollar index has rebounded above 106, supported by a strong US economy and a weak European economy, while the Japanese yen has depreciated nearly 10% year-to-date[44] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by nearly 30 basis points year-to-date, currently at 2.25%[45] - As of April 18, the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds was 48 basis points, down over 10 basis points from the previous week[45] - The bond market remains strong despite expectations of increased government bond supply, with institutions showing moderate support for potential government bond issuance[45] Foreign Investment and Debt Holdings - China has reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds for two consecutive months, with a total holding of 775 billion USD as of February 2024, down 2.27 billion USD in February alone[46] - The total US national debt has exceeded 34 trillion USD, accounting for over 130% of GDP[46] Commodity Market Performance - Commodity prices remain robust, with copper prices rising nearly 5% recently, driven by global PMI recovery and supply disruptions[47] - Gold and silver prices continue to reach historical highs, with the gold-silver ratio around 83, indicating potential for silver price recovery[47] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected Fed rate cuts, the spread of crises in overseas banking sectors, and unexpected international geopolitical tensions[48]
FICC&资产配置周观察：美元MLF缩量平价续作，曲线先陡再平
Donghai Securities·2024-04-22 06:30