大消费行业2024Q2投资策略报告：长风破浪会有时

Group 1: Skincare and Cosmetics Market Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of functional skincare products in China, with the market size increasing from 13.3 billion yuan in 2017 to 30.8 billion yuan in 2021, achieving a CAGR of 23.4% [5] - The top brands in the skincare category during the 38th Douyin Goods Festival included brands like "Chanel" and "Estée Lauder," with significant year-on-year GMV growth for several brands [2] - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with five local brands among the top 20 in the Chinese cosmetics market, reflecting a growing acceptance among Gen Z consumers [7] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - The new cosmetic supervision regulations implemented in January 2021 aim to enhance industry standardization, benefiting compliant companies with strong R&D and management capabilities [8] - The regulations classify cosmetics based on risk levels and require sufficient scientific evidence for efficacy claims, ensuring that manufacturers are accountable for product safety and claims [31][32] Group 3: Alcoholic Beverages Market - The report indicates that major liquor companies have shown steady growth in performance, with high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing significant profit increases in the first three quarters of 2023 [11][12] - The demand for high-end liquor is expected to improve as business needs recover, with a notable increase in banquet consumption post-pandemic [34] - The beer industry is transitioning towards high-end products, with a steady increase in high-end beer consumption from 5.9 billion liters in 2013 to an expected 10.2 billion liters in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 5.63% [27] Group 4: Beer Industry Dynamics - The beer industry is facing a decline in overall production, with a 29.49% decrease from 2013 to 2022, indicating a shift from volume growth to quality improvement [25] - The concentration of the beer market is increasing, with the top five companies holding over 90% of the market share, indicating a stable oligopoly [42] - The average price per ton of beer has been on the rise, with significant increases observed from 2017 to 2022, suggesting a shift towards premiumization in the market [30][48]