大类资产每周观察

Market Overview - The US retail sales data for March remains strong, leading to a delay in interest rate cuts, with US Treasury yields and the dollar index continuing to rise[21] - Domestic economic recovery is weaker than expected, with structural changes in demand affecting manufacturing capacity utilization rates[21] Asset Class Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.81%, while the Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.29%[7] - The risk premium for equities and bonds recorded 3.85%, down 0.05% from last week, indicating a decline in foreign investment attractiveness[13] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 2.8 basis points, while the 2-year yield increased by 0.8 basis points, indicating a flattening yield curve[18] - The issuance of government bonds was 160 billion yuan, with a net demand of 1.3 trillion yuan, reflecting sustained high monetary demand[16] Commodity Analysis - Industrial products are expected to experience a strong rebound in May, following a seasonal bottoming in April[49] - Agricultural products are showing a mixed trend, with soybean meal prices fluctuating due to seasonal inventory changes[43] Risk Factors - Risks include US inflation and employment disturbances, slower-than-expected recovery of the domestic real economy, and geopolitical military conflict risks[5]