海外宏观及大类资产周度报告

Fixed Income - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9.91 basis points to 4.62% as of April 19, 2024[31] - The spread between US and G7 countries' 10-year bonds widened, indicating a growing divergence in monetary policy expectations[57] - High-yield credit spreads remain elevated, reflecting ongoing market concerns about credit risk[50] Currency Market - The offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 0.22% to 7.2512 against the USD, while the onshore rate increased slightly by 0.03% to 7.2393[55] - The US dollar index rose by 0.11% to 106.1540, supported by stronger-than-expected inflation data[55] - Major non-USD currencies are facing intervention risks, particularly the Japanese yen, which is under pressure due to potential currency market interventions[10] Commodity Market - Geopolitical tensions have led to strong performance in commodities, outpacing equities and bonds[13] - Gold prices are expected to remain strong, driven by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns, despite recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve[29] Equity Market - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline of 3.05% recently, with significant pressure on technology stocks, particularly the "Magnificent 7" companies[105] - Earnings season is critical, with approximately 178 S&P 500 companies reporting, representing over 40% of the index's total market capitalization[15] - The earnings surprise index for the S&P has decreased, indicating growing concerns about corporate profitability amid rising interest rates[12]