Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 5.24, representing a potential upside of 44.68% from the current price of HKD 3.62 [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the year 2023 reached RMB 23.475 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.75%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.51% to RMB 1.187 billion due to soft supply-demand dynamics and lower prices for urea and other chemical products [1][4]. - The report anticipates a recovery in chemical product prices in 2024, driven by a projected increase in demand and the company's ongoing capacity expansion projects [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: RMB 23.475 billion in 2023, up 1.75% from 2022, with forecasts of RMB 23.999 billion in 2024 and RMB 26.427 billion in 2025 [4][5]. - Net Profit: RMB 1.187 billion in 2023, down 10.51% from 2022, with projections of RMB 1.484 billion in 2024 and RMB 1.650 billion in 2025 [4][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): RMB 0.969 in 2023, with expected increases to RMB 1.21 in 2024 and RMB 1.35 in 2025 [4][5]. - Gross Margin: 17.83% in 2023, slightly down from 18.84% in 2022, with expectations of improvement in future years [1][4]. Business Segment Performance - Urea Segment: Revenue increased by 1% to RMB 6.874 billion in 2023, with a 9% rise in sales volume but a 7% decline in average selling price [1]. - Compound Fertilizer: Revenue grew by 0.2% to RMB 6.130 billion, with a 16% increase in sales volume offset by a 13% drop in average selling price [1]. - Methanol: Revenue rose by 2% to RMB 2.339 billion, driven by a 9% increase in sales volume, although the gross margin was negative at -0.6% [1]. - Melamine: Revenue decreased by 19% to RMB 0.784 billion, with a significant drop in gross margin from 49% to 29% [1]. Capacity Expansion Projects - The company is progressing with new capacity projects, including a 500,000-ton nitro fertilizer plant in Henan and a 300,000-ton compound fertilizer plant in Guangxi, both expected to commence operations in 2024 [1][2]. - Additional projects include a 60,000-ton polyoxymethylene project in Xinjiang and an 800,000-ton synthetic ammonia and 1,150,000-ton urea project in Jiangxi, slated for completion by 2025 [1].
业绩承压，化工产品价格下行，项目建设持续推进