公司年报点评：2023年扣非后净利润同比下降8.83%，在建项目有序推进

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][18] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in net profit by 8.83% in 2023, with a proposed cash dividend of 376 million yuan [4][17] - The company is focusing on expanding its composite fertilizer business and has made significant capital investments in recent years, including projects in the lithium iron phosphate sector and various upstream phosphate chemical projects [17][18] - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are expected to be 1.406 billion yuan, 1.670 billion yuan, and 1.925 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.12 yuan, 1.33 yuan, and 1.53 yuan [18][19] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved operating revenue of 15.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.38%, and a net profit of 1.207 billion yuan, down 7.85% [4][19] - The company’s gross profit margin for 2023 was 14.9%, with expectations for gradual improvement to 15.8% by 2026 [19][26] - The sales volume of phosphate fertilizers increased by 6.30% year-on-year to 5.0678 million tons in 2023, with new-type compound fertilizers showing a significant sales increase of 23.60% [6][19] Business Segment Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2024 is 15.86 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 18.60 billion yuan by 2026 [19][26] - The revenue from new-type compound fertilizers is expected to grow significantly, reaching approximately 5.8 billion yuan by 2026 [19][26] - The gross profit margin for new-type compound fertilizers is projected to stabilize at 20% from 2024 onwards [19][26] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2023 was 2.131 billion yuan, with expectations for a decrease to 1.682 billion yuan in 2024 [19][26] - The current ratio is projected to improve from 1.27 in 2023 to 2.00 by 2026, indicating better liquidity [19][26] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 40.7% in 2023 to 36.5% by 2026, reflecting improved financial stability [19][26]