ZHONGJI INNOLIGHT(300308) 民生证券·2024-04-23 01:00Investment Rating - Maintain "Recommend" rating [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, with AI driving high demand for high-end optical modules [1] - The company achieved revenue of 10,718 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 11.16%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 2,174 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 77.58% [1] - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4,843 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.59%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 1,009 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 303.84% [1] - The company's high growth is driven by the increasing proportion of high-end optical module products such as 400G and 800G, optimized product structure, and continuous cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company's gross profit margin in 2023 and Q1 2024 was 32.99% and 32.76%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 3.68pct and 3.21pct [1] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from 10,718 million yuan in 2023 to 44,039 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 139.1%, 32.0%, and 30.2% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2,174 million yuan in 2023 to 9,455 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 132.1%, 39.0%, and 34.9% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - EPS is expected to increase from 2.71 yuan in 2023 to 11.78 yuan in 2026 [1] - PE ratios are forecasted to decrease from 58 in 2023 to 13 in 2026 [1] Product and Market Analysis - High-speed optical modules contributed 97.99 million yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for 91.42% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 35.06%, a year-on-year increase of 4.31pct [1] - Mid-to-low-speed optical modules contributed 3.83 million yuan in revenue in 2023, accounting for 3.58% of total revenue, with a gross profit margin of 10.50%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.80pct [1] - The company is accelerating the market introduction of 1.6T optical modules, aiming for mass production and delivery by 2025 [1] - The company has launched 800G ZR/ZR+ coherent optical modules in collaboration with Marvell [1] Strategic Positioning and Competitive Advantage - The company is a global leader in data communication optical modules, with a significant first-mover advantage in cutting-edge technologies [1] - The company is continuously investing in high-rate optical modules, telecom-grade optical modules, silicon photonics, and coherent technologies [1] - The company's strong market position and technological leadership are expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-end data communication optical modules driven by AI [1] Financial Metrics and Ratios - The company's ROE is expected to increase from 15.24% in 2023 to 28.26% in 2026 [5] - The company's total asset turnover ratio is expected to increase from 0.59 in 2023 to 1.06 in 2026 [5] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 26.15% in 2023 to 27.37% in 2026 [5]