ZZPZH(SH:600436) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-04-23 02:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Accumulate" rating for the company [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported steady growth in 2023, with revenue reaching 10.058 billion yuan (+15.7%) and net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.797 billion yuan (+13.2%). The first quarter of 2024 also showed stable performance, with revenue of 3.171 billion yuan (+20.6%) and net profit of 975 million yuan (+26.6%) [3][4]. - The company is adjusting its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2025 to 5.28 yuan and 6.20 yuan respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2026 at 6.93 yuan. The target price has been raised to 237.6 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45x for 2024 [3][5]. - The report highlights strong performance across various segments, particularly in liver disease medications, which saw revenue of 4.463 billion yuan (+24.26%) in 2023, and cardiovascular medications, which increased by 60.6% to 266 million yuan [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a total revenue of 10.058 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 15.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.797 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.2% increase [4]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 3.171 billion yuan, up 20.6%, and a net profit of 975 million yuan, an increase of 26.6% [3][4]. Segment Analysis - Liver disease medication revenue reached 4.463 billion yuan (+24.26%), with a significant volume increase despite price hikes. Cardiovascular medication revenue surged by 60.6% to 266 million yuan, driven by the rapid market uptake of new products [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated 4.205 billion yuan (+3.6%), while cosmetics revenue was 707 million yuan (+11.4%) [3]. Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to remain strong in 2024, with continued growth anticipated. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.20 yuan per 10 shares, significantly increasing the payout ratio to 50.04% [3][4]. - The report identifies catalysts for growth, including the rapid expansion of online channels and increased sales efforts in offline markets [3].