高速光模块需求持续释放

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 net profit continued its sequential growth trend, with revenue reaching 4 84 billion yuan, up 163 6% YoY and 31 3% QoQ, and net profit reaching 1 01 billion yuan, up 303 8% YoY and 15 0% QoQ [2] - The company's gross margin in Q1 2024 was affected by product structure and annual price reductions, declining by 2 6pct QoQ to 32 8%, but there is still room for improvement due to increased production efficiency and cost optimization [2] - High-speed optical module demand is accelerating, with the company's 1 6T products entering the sampling and testing phase with key overseas customers, expected to complete certification and enter the ordering phase in H2 2024 [2] - The company is a leader in silicon photonics technology, with rapid volume growth in 400G and 800G silicon photonics single-mode products, and is actively developing LPO, CPO, and 3D packaging technologies [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2023 was 10 718 billion yuan, up 11 2% YoY, with net profit of 2 174 billion yuan, up 77 6% YoY [2] - Revenue for 2024E is forecasted at 27 030 billion yuan, up 152 2% YoY, with net profit of 5 049 billion yuan, up 132 3% YoY [1] - Revenue for 2025E is forecasted at 40 083 billion yuan, up 48 3% YoY, with net profit of 7 993 billion yuan, up 58 3% YoY [1] - Revenue for 2026E is forecasted at 50 092 billion yuan, up 25 0% YoY, with net profit of 10 308 billion yuan, up 29 0% YoY [1] - The company's EBIT margin is expected to increase from 20 3% in 2024E to 23 7% in 2026E [1] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 27 2% in 2024E to 32 0% in 2025E, before slightly declining to 31 1% in 2026E [1] Product and Market Analysis - High-speed optical modules are expected to see significant growth, with revenue forecasted to increase by 166 9% in 2024E and 50 0% in 2025E, driven by AI infrastructure demand [7][9] - Low-speed optical module revenue is expected to decline, with a forecasted decrease of 8 2% in 2024E and 12 7% in 2025E [9] - The company's gross margin for high-speed optical modules is expected to improve, reaching 35 0% in 2024E and 35 7% in 2025E, due to product iteration and cost optimization [7][9] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's PE ratio is forecasted to decrease from 25 2x in 2024E to 12 3x in 2026E [1] - The company's PB ratio is expected to decline from 6 85x in 2024E to 3 83x in 2026E [1] - Compared to peers, the company has a higher PE ratio but a lower PB ratio, with a total market cap of 127 136 billion yuan [10][11]