美债利率上行：进击的美元和黄金

Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has significantly increased, reflecting a market that is pricing in various factors beyond just economic fundamentals[7] - The GDPNow model indicates a first-quarter growth rate close to 3%, which is notably higher than previous market forecasts[7] Market Trends - U.S. stock markets have been under pressure due to rising Treasury yields, despite a strong performance earlier in the year[8] - Concerns about macroeconomic factors are growing, with the recent surge in 10-year Treasury yields becoming a persistent worry for investors[12] Inflation and Interest Rates - There is a re-evaluation of medium to long-term inflation expectations, which is a critical topic for bond investors given the robust performance of the U.S. economy[3][31] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in June has diminished, raising questions about market optimism regarding future rate adjustments[16] Currency and Commodity Insights - The U.S. dollar is strengthening as the interest rate differential with the Eurozone widens, leading to a depreciation of currencies like the Euro and Yen[27] - Gold remains a favored investment despite perceptions of it being overpriced, as it continues to be viewed as a logical investment choice[4][32] Export Performance - China's March export figures fell short of market expectations, impacting the overall sentiment in the Hong Kong market[9][18]