HIKVISION(002415) 东方财富证券·2024-04-23 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hikvision (002415) [3][5] Core Views - Hikvision demonstrated resilient performance in 2023 with revenue reaching 89340 billion yuan, up 7.42% YoY, and net profit attributable to parent company reaching 14108 billion yuan, up 9.89% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin improved to 44.44% in 2023, up 2.15 percentage points, driven by supply chain scale advantages and cost reduction through technological innovation [2] - In Q4 2023, revenue grew 19.71% YoY to 28065 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to parent company surging 31.51% YoY to 5256 billion yuan [2] - For Q1 2024, revenue increased 9.98% YoY to 17818 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to parent company rose 5.78% YoY to 1916 billion yuan [2] Business Segment Analysis - EBG (Enterprise Business Group) revenue grew 8.12% YoY to 17845 billion yuan in 2023, driven by growth in industries like industrial and commercial enterprises, energy and metallurgy, education, and financial services [3] - Overseas business revenue increased 8.83% YoY to 23977 billion yuan in 2023, showing strong resilience with accelerating growth [3] - Innovation business revenue surged 23.11% YoY to 18553 billion yuan in 2023, with competitive advantages emerging across various scenarios [3] - PBG (Public Business Group) revenue declined 4.84% YoY to 15354 billion yuan in 2023 due to reduced government investment, though transportation and traffic police sectors still achieved growth [3] Strategic Development - Hikvision is deepening its AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) layout, leveraging AI to enhance perception technology and build a comprehensive AIoT technology system [3] - The company is transitioning towards becoming an OT (Operational Technology) provider, benefiting from enterprise digital transformation trends [5] - Scenario-based digital business is emerging as the company's second growth curve [3] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow to 99291 billion yuan in 2024, 112524 billion yuan in 2025, and 128139 billion yuan in 2026 [5][6] - Net profit attributable to parent company is expected to reach 16549 billion yuan in 2024, 19378 billion yuan in 2025, and 22391 billion yuan in 2026 [5][6] - EPS is forecasted to be 1.77 yuan in 2024, 2.08 yuan in 2025, and 2.40 yuan in 2026 [5][6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected at 18.5x for 2024, 15.8x for 2025, and 13.7x for 2026 [5][6] - P/B ratio is expected to be 3.29x in 2024, 2.91x in 2025, and 2.57x in 2026 [6] - EV/EBITDA is forecasted at 12.52x in 2024, 10.66x in 2025, and 8.95x in 2026 [6]