2024年一季报点评:Q1业绩符合预期,铝价上涨增强公司盈利能力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance met expectations, with a revenue of 6.825 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 720 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.55% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.76% [1] - The rise in aluminum prices has enhanced the company's profitability, with the average domestic electrolytic aluminum price reaching 19,047 yuan per ton in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.19% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.43% [1] - The company has completed an equity acquisition of an alumina company in Guinea, securing exclusive purchasing rights for alumina products, which will significantly reduce production costs and ensure raw material supply for its domestic alumina production lines [1] - The company is advancing its overseas aluminum projects, including an alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance its growth trajectory [1] Financial Summary - For the years 2024-2026, the company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 3.689 billion yuan, 4.070 billion yuan, and 4.906 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.79 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.06 yuan [2] - The report forecasts a revenue increase from 28.975 billion yuan in 2023 to 35.342 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a positive growth trend [2] - The company's gross profit margin reached 18.69% in the reporting period, an increase of 6.2 percentage points year-on-year and 3.36 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]