智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，海外新兴经济体支撑铝需求进入新周期，预计2025-2030年需求 CAGR为2.3%。受制于国内铝土矿短缺和2017年以来电解铝产能天花板限制，中国铝企出海东南亚、非 洲、中东等地的进程正全面加速。供需端看，电解铝缺口持续扩大，叠加全球积极的财政和货币政策共 振，铝价有望持续创出新高；考虑成本侧有望维持低位，吨铝利润有望随着铝价上行进一步走阔。 中金主要观点如下： 供给端弹性下降且脆弱性上升 投资建议 建议重点关注三条选股标准，一是产能市值比较高，铝价上涨业绩弹性大；二是具备出海布局能力，成 长性较强；三是考虑当前氧化铝价格已至底部区域，如果出现产能关停、反内卷政策刺激以及几内亚矿 业政策扰动，优先选择氧化铝自给率较高的标的。推荐关注标的：中国宏桥(01378)、中国铝业 (601600.SH,02600)、天山铝业(002532.SZ)、南山铝业(600219.SH,02610)、华通线缆(605196.SH)。 风险因素 产品价格波动；海外产能投放超预期；需求不及预期；地缘政治扰动。 成本端，一是氧化铝受反内卷和几内亚政策风险有望驱动价格否极泰来，二是能源绿色转型有望降 ...

上市企业：中国铝业（601600）,天山铝业（002532）,南山铝业（600219）,云铝股份（000807）,神火股 份（000933）,中孚实业（600595）,焦作万方（000612）,宏创控股（002379）,闽发铝业（002578）,宁 波富邦（600768） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国氧化铝行业发展模式分析及未来前景规划报告》 2020-2025年中国氧化铝产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国氧化铝产量为801万吨，同比增长6.7%；2025年中国氧化铝 累计产量为9244.6万吨，累计增长8%。 ...

2026年1月29日 1月28日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 简称 | 車日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率(近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月) (%) | | 1 | 600916.SH | 中国黄金 | 10.04 | 50.55 | 3.14 | | 2 | 605599 SH | 菜自股份 | 9.98 | 32.62 | 3.65 | | 3 | 002532.SZ | 天山铝业 | 9.98 | 28.06 | 2.11 | | 4 | 600219.SH | 南山铝业 | 9.94 | 45.91 | 5.46 | | 5 | 000933.SZ | 神火股份 | 9.56 | 30.62 | 1.52 | | 6 | 600938.SH | 甲国海道 | 6.98 | 17.86 | 3.82 | | 7 | 603279.SH | 景津装备 | 5.43 | 13.93 | 4.94 | | 8 | 600096.SH ...

【国泰海通金属｜周论与调研】关注供给扰动带来的板块机会 本周调研： 公司：天山铝业 时间：1月29日周四上午11:00 地点：上海市浦东新区 ☎联系人：梁琳18811312831 公司：华峰铝业 时间：1月29日周四下午16:00 地点：上海市金山区 ☎联系人：梁琳18811312831 金银：贵金属价格继续上行。 北美地缘政治事件发酵，投资者对美元、美债的担忧上升，受益于美元贬值和避险需求，贵金属继续上行并突破 关键价格。 展望2026年，我们认为央行购金和黄金ETF持仓份额的上升，将继续成为支撑黄金价格的重要因素。 本周调研： 公司：天山铝业 时间：1月29日周四上午11:00 地点：上海市浦东新区 ☎联系人：梁琳18811312831 公司：华峰铝业 时间：1月29日周四下午16:00 地点：上海市金山区 ☎联系人：梁琳18811312831 金银：贵金属价格继续上行。 北美地缘 【国泰海通金属｜周论与调研】关注供给扰动带来的板块机会 白银来看，伦敦白银租赁利率有所下降，但美国白银库存下降速度较快。 矿供给有所改善，锡矿加工费反弹，锡锭高价下，下游多观望为主。 近期期货端多空博弈激烈，价格波动加大，后续 ...

Group 1 - The industrial metals sector is expected to enter a golden window in 2026, driven by macroeconomic factors and fundamental demand, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies boosting liquidity and demand [1] - Supply constraints are evident due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure, declining ore grades, and frequent mine production cuts, leading to sustained pressure on copper and aluminum supplies [1][5] - Demand remains resilient in traditional sectors while emerging fields like AI data centers and energy storage are experiencing explosive growth, becoming key drivers of marginal demand [1][2] Group 2 - The copper market is characterized by a structural shortage, with refined copper expected to face a shortfall of 380,000 tons in 2026, leading to an upward price trend [1][5] - The aluminum sector is in a tight balance phase, with domestic production capacity nearing its limit and new capacity additions constrained by high costs and power supply issues in regions like Indonesia [2][5] - Demand for aluminum is significantly improving, particularly in transportation and power electronics, with a projected domestic aluminum shortfall increasing from 150,000 tons in 2025 to 1,070,000 tons by 2027 [2][5] Group 3 - The financial attributes of copper are strengthened by the ongoing interest rate cuts, while its commodity attributes are constrained by supply-side tensions [5] - The demand for copper in data centers is projected to reach 268,000 tons by 2026, driven by the growth of AI and energy storage applications [1][24] - The aluminum demand in data centers is estimated at 78,000 tons globally and 20,000 tons domestically by 2026, with aluminum primarily used in structural and electrical applications [39][40] Group 4 - Investment recommendations focus on companies in the copper sector with sustainable growth, including Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Nonferrous Mining, while also highlighting aluminum companies with strong dividend yields and profit elasticity [5][52] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain risks related to bauxite, as the industry remains highly dependent on external sources [5][55]

2026年1月26日 1月23日标的指数成份股涨跌幅TOP20 标普中国 A 股红利机会指数(CSPSADRP) | 序号 | 代码 | 筒称 | 東日涨幅 | 年内涨幅 | 股息率 (近12个 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | (%) | (%) | 月） (%) | | l | 688516°CH | 奥特维 | 20.00 | 98.87 | 2.80 | | 2 | 600916.SH 中国黄金 | | 10.02 | 13.13 | 4.18 | | 3 | 000338.SZ 潍柴动力 | | 5.10 | 36.63 | 3.14 | | 4 | 600219.SH | 南山铝业 | 4.47 | 26.02 | 6.01 | | 5 | 600750.SH | 江中药业 | 3.08 | 1.17 | 5.28 | | 6 | 605599.SH | 菜直股份 | 2.85 | 19.12 | 3.80 | | 7 | | 002532.SZ 天山铝业 | 2.51 | 18.67 | 2.12 | | 8 | 300628.SZ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records in 2026 [12] - Zinc is viewed as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the potential for precious metals to lead industrial metals in price increases, driven by a breakdown in the gold-silver ratio and a late-stage long-term debt cycle [7][12] - Specific investment opportunities include companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988) and others in the precious metals sector [7] Zinc Sector - The report identifies zinc as a critical material in the context of re-industrialization, with supply constraints and increasing demand expected to drive prices higher [13] Aluminum Sector - The report highlights the competitive advantages of China's electrolytic aluminum industry, which is expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions and supply chain security [13] Steel Sector - The steel industry is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low period before the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production and consumption metrics indicate a slight increase in iron output but a decrease in rebar demand, reflecting a mixed outlook for the sector [19][26] New Energy Metals - The report notes significant increases in lithium and cobalt prices, with production metrics showing substantial year-on-year growth in lithium carbonate output [37][46] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures indicating continued growth in the sector [41] Industrial Metals - The report discusses the overall upward trend in industrial metal prices, driven by political policy risks and supply reduction expectations [56] - Specific metrics indicate rising copper production and declining refining fees, suggesting a tightening supply environment [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [5] Core Insights - The gold-silver ratio has broken through 50, indicating that precious metals are likely to lead industrial metals in accelerating price increases. Recent significant price increases in silver reflect a broader trend of rising physical metal prices as a response to the weakening trust in fiat currency systems [7][12] - The long-term debt cycle is entering its late stage, with rising physical metal prices signaling a loss of confidence in existing fiat currency systems. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with precious metals likely to set new historical price records [12] - Zinc is identified as an overlooked material in the context of de-globalization, with favorable supply-demand dynamics suggesting continued price increases. The report highlights the potential for increased demand from re-industrialization efforts in Asia, Africa, and Latin America [13] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from geopolitical concerns, with China's electrolytic aluminum industry poised to enjoy valuation premiums due to its supply chain security and competitive advantages [13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the importance of precious metals in preserving wealth amid a declining trust in fiat currencies, recommending active investment in this sector [12] Zinc Sector - The report suggests that zinc, as a fundamental material for de-globalization, will see increased demand driven by infrastructure needs in emerging markets, despite current market skepticism [13] Aluminum Sector - The electrolytic aluminum industry in China is expected to benefit from enhanced supply chain security and competitive advantages, with a positive outlook for profitability and valuation [13] Steel Industry - The steel sector is currently facing weak fundamentals as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the industry [14] - Steel production has seen a slight increase, but demand for rebar is weakening, indicating a mixed outlook for the sector [19] New Energy Metals - Lithium and carbonate prices have shown significant increases, with production levels rising sharply, indicating strong demand in the new energy vehicle sector [37][41] - The report notes a substantial increase in the production of lithium carbonate and hydroxide, reflecting the growing demand for electric vehicles [37] Industrial Metals - The report indicates that political risks and supply constraints are contributing to an overall increase in industrial metal prices, with copper production expected to rise despite declining refining fees [56][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations amidst inventory accumulation, with short-term price adjustments expected to be limited due to the financial attributes of copper supported by rising gold prices. The supply-demand balance for copper may shift from tight equilibrium to shortage in the medium to long term, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mines and frequent supply disruptions. The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jiangxi Copper, and others [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that both alumina and aluminum prices are under pressure due to high inventory levels. The short-term outlook for aluminum prices is expected to remain stable amidst high demand, particularly in the air conditioning and consumer goods sectors [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with lithium carbonate prices entering an upward cycle driven by supply-demand reversal. The report recommends focusing on companies with high self-sufficiency in lithium resources [5] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply, with the report suggesting companies like Huayou Cobalt and others for investment [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. core PCE price index and unemployment claims, which align with expectations [9] - Key announcements include Zijin Mining's completion of the second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine, significantly increasing its production capacity [10] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 6.03% compared to the index's 0.84% rise [11] - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the sector, highlighting significant movements in various sub-sectors [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The report notes that the TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 33.82, with a change of 1.79, while the PB is 4.18, reflecting a significant premium over the broader market [20][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates a decrease in risk aversion and a slowdown in inventory accumulation, suggesting a more favorable macroeconomic environment for the aluminum sector [6][10] - The aluminum price is expected to remain volatile at high levels, with a long-term outlook indicating limited supply growth against a backdrop of increasing demand [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 23, 2026, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $3173.5 per ton, up $39.5 from the previous week, marking a 1.3% week-on-week increase and a 20.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was 24290.0 CNY per ton, up 365.0 CNY from the previous week, reflecting a 1.5% week-on-week increase and a 19.6% year-on-year increase [22] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was 24130.0 CNY per ton, up 130.0 CNY week-on-week, representing a 0.5% increase and a 19.5% year-on-year increase [22] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 378.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.4 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [55] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 752.0 million tons, up 8.0 million tons month-on-month and up 2.5% year-on-year [55] 3. Inventory - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 743,000 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons, indicating a slight slowdown in inventory accumulation [7] - The report notes that the overall inventory levels have not peaked, suggesting ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies highlighted include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yunnan Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5] - China Hongqiao's stock price was 32.16 CNY with an EPS forecast of 2.77 CNY for 2026, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.6 [5] 5. Demand - The report indicates that downstream demand remains subdued, with only essential purchases being made due to high aluminum prices and a seasonal demand lull [7] - The overall operating rate for aluminum processing was recorded at 60.9%, showing a slight increase but indicating mixed performance across different segments [7]