GigaDevice(SH:603986) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-04-24 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected increase of over 15% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [2][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the memory market cycle, with a continuous expansion of its product line and an increase in market share [3][4]. - The semiconductor market is projected to grow significantly, with a forecasted increase of 66.3% in 2024, driven by stable demand in smartphones and PCs, as well as the AI trend [3]. - The MCU business has shown signs of stabilization, particularly in the automotive-grade MCU market, with successful collaborations with leading domestic and international companies [4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 5.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 29.14% year-on-year, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, down 92.15% year-on-year [2][5]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.32%, and a net profit of 205 million yuan, up 36.45% year-on-year [2][5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to recover, with estimates of 7.32 billion yuan in 2024, 9.03 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.65 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 19.63% from 2024 to 2027 [4][5]. Product and Market Development - The company continues to enhance its product offerings in the memory segment, including NOR Flash, SLC NAND Flash, and DRAM, with a strong focus on new process iterations and high-reliability products [2][4]. - The company has successfully launched the GD32H series of high-performance microcontrollers based on the Arm Cortex-M7 core, marking a significant milestone in its MCU product line [4]. - The company aims to expand its market presence in automotive-grade MCUs, having already collaborated with major Tier 1 platforms for product development [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for the company's earnings indicates a significant recovery, with expected net profits of 1.03 billion yuan in 2024, 1.47 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.84 billion yuan in 2026, corresponding to EPS of 1.54 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.76 yuan respectively [4][5].