宏观·投研日报

Commodity Market Overview - On April 23, 2024, most domestic commodity futures closed lower, with base and precious metals leading the decline; tin fell over 9%, silver over 4%, and gold over 3%[5] - Energy and chemical products also saw declines, with methanol and butadiene rubber dropping over 2%[5] - The black series mostly fell, with coking coal down over 3% and silicon iron and stainless steel down over 2%[5] - Agricultural products showed mixed results, with rapeseed oil up over 4% and soybean oil up over 2%, while live pigs fell over 2%[5] Market Influences - The decline in commodity prices is attributed to delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and easing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East[6] - High-priced resource transactions weakened, leading to profit-taking in the black series, while agricultural products experienced a divergence due to extreme weather in Europe and the Russia-Ukraine conflict[6] - Despite short-term fluctuations, domestic and international economic performance is better than expected, supporting demand recovery and potential commodity rebounds[6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. April manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 49.9, below expectations of 52.0, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[11] - The U.S. April service PMI preliminary value is 50.9, also below expectations, suggesting a slowdown in service sector growth[11] - European manufacturing PMI for April is 45.6, below expectations, while the service PMI is 52.9, indicating a mixed economic outlook in the Eurozone[14][17] Precious Metals Outlook - Precious metals prices are undergoing significant adjustments, with gold futures closing at 544.84 CNY per gram, down 3.54%, and silver at 6989 CNY per kilogram, down 4.78%[18] - The recent drop in precious metals is driven by three main factors: geopolitical tensions easing, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and profit-taking by long positions[23] - Long-term outlook remains positive for precious metals, supported by potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical risks, suggesting a future price increase[19]