Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for SF Intra-City (9699 HK) [4][10] Core Views - SF Intra-City is a leading third-party on-demand delivery platform with improving profitability, achieving its first profit since IPO in 2023 [4][7] - The company adopts a full-scene business model, covering food delivery, local retail, local e-commerce, and local services, benefiting from economies of scale and network effects [4][7] - The on-demand delivery industry is driven by new consumption models, with clear competition patterns and the rising value of third-party platforms due to private domain traffic construction [4][8] - SF Intra-City leverages the SF brand, with its last-mile business ensuring a stable revenue base and non-catering scenarios contributing more to its order structure [4][9] - The company's tea drink delivery revenue grew 75% YoY in 2023, with deepened cooperation with brands like Luckin, CHAGEE, and McDonald's [4][9] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to reach RMB 14 94 billion in 2024, RMB 17 57 billion in 2025, and RMB 20 30 billion in 2026 [4][10] - The current market cap implies PS multiples of 0 57x for 2024E, 0 48x for 2025E, and 0 42x for 2026E, with a 17% upside potential based on a fair PS valuation of 0 66x for 2024 [4][10] Industry Analysis - The on-demand delivery industry is entering a mature phase, with high-value-added scenarios like local retail and near-field e-commerce becoming future growth drivers [35][36] - Demand is driven by rising disposable income, expanding local consumer markets, and changing consumer habits, with the industry's order volume expected to reach 957 8 billion by 2026 [44][46] - The rapid growth of instant tea drink stores and the IPO wave among new tea drink brands create opportunities for delivery platforms [51][57] - Third-party on-demand delivery platforms are gaining traction due to their independent order sources, diversified service scenarios, and comprehensive delivery capabilities [62][63] Company Positioning - SF Intra-City benefits from the SF brand, leveraging its parent company's resources and customer base to secure stable orders and ensure revenue growth [69][70] - The company's last-mile business accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, providing a stable income base [71][73] - As an independent third-party platform, SF Intra-City is not constrained by platform competition, making it a preferred choice for merchants seeking diversified traffic channels [74][75] - The company is optimizing its order structure, with non-catering scenarios contributing 40% to its intra-city delivery revenue in 2023, driven by growth in local retail, near-field e-commerce, and near-field services [77]
深度报告：新消费模式下品牌变现与三方配送价值再挖掘