资产配置跟踪周报：经济回暖但仍存忧虑，资本市场政策利好长期

Core Insights - The bond market is expected to yield returns by extending duration, with short-duration products still worthy of attention [31][39][23] - The capital market is experiencing a temporary disturbance due to the "New National Nine Articles," but the market is likely to trend positively in the long term as institutional improvements are made [34][45][11] - The equity market shows a long-term positive trend, with recommendations to increase allocation to growth-style assets [4][9][11] Section Summaries Economic Overview - The first quarter achieved a "good start," with GDP growth of 5.3% exceeding market expectations, but underlying economic growth momentum remains fragile [26][44] - Structural issues persist, including insufficient effective demand and significant overcapacity in certain industries [26][44] Capital Market Analysis - The "New National Nine Articles" has led to market volatility, particularly affecting micro-cap stocks, which saw a decline of 12.11% in the Wind micro-cap index [11][12] - The introduction of the "New National Nine Articles" is expected to enhance the investment environment by promoting value investing and stricter regulation of non-compliant companies [11][45] Equity Market Insights - The A-share market is expected to benefit from the "New National Nine Articles," with a focus on high-dividend sectors and "new quality productivity" areas as potential investment hotspots [45][11] - The market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with the financial sector showing strength while consumer and healthcare sectors are mixed [13][12] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continues to exhibit a bullish trend, particularly in long-term bonds, supported by stable monetary policy and ample market liquidity [39][31] - The yield curve is showing a narrowing spread between long and short-term bonds, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [32][23] Commodity Market Analysis - The commodity market is generally on an upward trend, with gold prices expected to rise further despite potential short-term corrections [25][41] - Agricultural products are experiencing downward adjustments due to seasonal supply increases [32][41]