宏观周报：国内经济延续复苏，美国二次通胀风险升温

Economic Indicators - In March, China's exports decreased by 7.5% year-on-year, while imports fell by 1.9%, both worse than expectations[25] - The trade balance for March was $58.55 billion, compared to $39.706 billion in the previous period[25] - The social financing scale in March was 4.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 514.2 billion yuan, marking a historical low[40] Price Trends - In March, China's CPI rose by 0.1% year-on-year, below the expected 0.3% and down from the previous 0.7%[7] - The PPI in March decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, lower than both the previous value and the expected decline of 2.7%[9] Real Estate and Automotive Sales - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 33.28% week-on-week as of April 11, but year-on-year sales in April are down by 50.51%[19] - Passenger car retail sales in early April averaged 34,000 units per day, a year-on-year decline of 8%[19] Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while M1 increased by only 1.1%, indicating weak demand in the real economy[58] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a loose monetary policy to support economic recovery, with potential measures including reserve requirement ratio cuts[30] Geopolitical Risks - Iran launched a large-scale attack on Israel in response to an earlier incident involving its diplomatic mission in Syria, escalating tensions in the Middle East[75] - The geopolitical situation may impact oil prices and global supply chains, necessitating close monitoring[22]