国内煤电铝龙头，季节因素不改长期竞争力

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.37 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 11.3 for 2024 [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 8.223 billion CNY for Q1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 13.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.091 billion CNY, down 29.47% year-on-year, with basic EPS at 0.49 CNY [2][3]. - The coal segment experienced a decline in profitability due to falling prices, with average prices for smokeless coal and lean coal dropping by 35% and 28% respectively [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment showed relative stability, with average prices increasing by 1.8% while the cost of alumina rose by 14.7% and the cost of anodes decreased by 16.6% [4]. - The aluminum processing segment is progressing well with the battery foil project, achieving international advanced levels in installed capacity [5]. - The company's core competitiveness remains strong, with expectations for profit recovery in Q2 due to increased coal production and the arrival of the wet season in Yunnan [6]. Financial Summary - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 39.637 billion CNY, 40.627 billion CNY, and 41.396 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.35%, 2.5%, and 1.89% respectively [7][8]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 5.823 billion CNY, 6.144 billion CNY, and 6.275 billion CNY, with year-on-year changes of -1.4%, +5.51%, and +2.14% respectively [7][8]. - The company’s EPS is projected to be 2.59 CNY, 2.73 CNY, and 2.79 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][8].