SACL(SZ:000089) GF SECURITIES·2024-04-24 01:31Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 6.82 CNY and a fair value of 8.23 CNY [4][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 437 million CNY, 639 million CNY, and 756 million CNY for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively. The DCF model estimates the company's fair value at 8.23 CNY per share, corresponding to PE ratios of 39X and 26X for 2024 and 2025, respectively [3][84]. Financial Summary - Revenue (Million CNY): - 2022A: 2671 - 2023A: 4165 - 2024E: 4531 - 2025E: 4982 - 2026E: 5373 - Growth Rate: 2023A: 55.9%, 2024E: 8.8%, 2025E: 9.9%, 2026E: 7.9% [2] - EBITDA (Million CNY): - 2022A: 77 - 2023A: 1458 - 2024E: 1750 - 2025E: 1996 - 2026E: 2129 [2] - Net Profit (Million CNY): - 2022A: -1124 - 2023A: 397 - 2024E: 437 - 2025E: 639 - 2026E: 756 - Growth Rate: 2024E: 10.2%, 2025E: 46.2%, 2026E: 18.2% [2] - EPS (CNY/Share): - 2022A: -0.55 - 2023A: 0.19 - 2024E: 0.21 - 2025E: 0.31 - 2026E: 0.37 [2] - P/E Ratio: - 2023A: 33.25 - 2024E: 32.36 - 2025E: 22.14 - 2026E: 18.72 [2] - ROE (%): - 2022A: -10.5% - 2023A: 3.6% - 2024E: 4.0% - 2025E: 5.7% - 2026E: 6.3% [2] - EV/EBITDA: - 2023A: 15.81 - 2024E: 13.20 - 2025E: 10.80 - 2026E: 9.83 [2] Business Model - The company operates primarily in the aviation sector, focusing on both aviation and non-aviation businesses. Aviation revenues are government-regulated, while non-aviation revenues are market-driven, allowing for higher profit margins [24][33]. Growth Trends - The company has shown strong growth in passenger throughput and flight operations, with Q1 2024 figures reaching 10.89 million flight operations (up 21.29% YoY) and 15.57 million passengers (up 36.03% YoY), surpassing 2019 levels [41][59]. Market Position - The company is strategically located in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which is expected to see significant growth in air travel demand due to its large population and economic output [67][76]. Future Outlook - The company aims to increase its annual passenger throughput to over 70 million by 2025, with international and regional passenger throughput expected to reach approximately 10 million [81]. Non-Aviation Revenue - Non-aviation revenue is projected to grow significantly, driven by market-based pricing strategies and the introduction of high-end retail brands at the airport [56][60]. Logistics and Cargo - The company has expanded its international cargo routes and is collaborating with major e-commerce platforms to enhance its logistics capabilities, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [65][72]. Conclusion - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, supported by strong recovery trends in passenger traffic, strategic location advantages, and growth in non-aviation revenue streams [3][84].