Changjiang Securities·2024-04-24 02:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q1 2024 retail data, with Anta/FILA/other brands achieving year-on-year revenue growth of mid-single digits/high-single digits/25%-30%, respectively, which aligns with expectations [5][6]. - Anta brand saw accelerated growth in March, with expectations for further growth driven by the upcoming Olympics and new product launches [5][6]. - FILA continues to show strong online growth, with expectations for high achievement rates for the year [5][6]. - Inventory levels are at optimal levels, indicating a continuation of high-quality growth [5][6]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.49 billion, 13.79 billion, and 15.63 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 32%, 2%, and 13% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Q1 retail revenue growth for Anta is expected to be lower than the annual average due to high base effects from previous years, but March's performance indicates a strong recovery [5][6]. - FILA's online channel is expected to outperform traditional e-commerce platforms, with improvements in store displays and product offerings contributing to growth [5][6]. Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for Anta are 62.36 billion, 70.48 billion, 79.17 billion, and 88.78 billion yuan for 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.23%, 13.03%, 12.32%, and 12.14% [8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 4.76 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.31 [8].