Haitong Securities·2024-04-24 04:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a Q1 2024 net profit of 6.261 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.05% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.37%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 6.224 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.92% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.89% [5][6] - The sales gross margin for Q1 2024 was 16.61%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while the mining segment's gross margin was 54.50%, an increase of 8.88 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company experienced an increase in both volume and price for copper and gold businesses. In Q1 2024, gold production was 16.81 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and copper production was 262,600 tons, also a year-on-year increase of 5% [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a Q1 2024 sales gross margin of 16.61% and a net profit margin of 10.23%, with the latter increasing by 0.77 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5] - The cost of gold ingots was 277 yuan/gram, an increase of 8% year-on-year but a decrease of 6% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company expects rapid profit growth over the next three years, with projected EPS of 0.99, 1.36, and 1.53 yuan per share for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][9] Project Development - Key projects in the copper segment include the Chukalu-Pegji copper (gold) mine and the Bol copper mine, which are expected to achieve a production capacity of 300,000 tons of copper per year by 2025 [5] - The Kamoa project is anticipated to be operational in Q2 2024, with an expected annual capacity exceeding 600,000 tons of copper [5] - In the gold segment, the Rosbel gold mine expansion is expected to yield an annual production capacity of 10 tons of gold upon completion [5] Valuation and Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a strong position in the global metal resources market, with a projected net profit growth period driven by the expansion of key projects [6][9] - The estimated reasonable value range for the stock is between 19.80 and 20.79 yuan per share, based on a PE ratio of 20-21 times for 2024 [6][9]