Haisco(SZ:002653) Southwest Securities·2024-04-24 08:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 25.91 RMB [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 3.355 billion RMB in 2023, an increase of 11.27% YoY, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 295 million RMB, up 6.51% YoY [2] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 752 million RMB, a 20.6% YoY increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 92 million RMB, up 219.86% YoY [2] - The company's innovative drug pipeline is progressing rapidly, with several key drugs expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [2] Product Pipeline and Market Performance - HSK16149: Expected to be approved in Q2 2024, with multiple indications under review or in clinical trials [2] - HSK21542: The injectable form has been submitted for NDA, and the oral form is in Phase II clinical trials [2] - HSK7653: A long-acting diabetes drug, currently under supplementary review [2] - HSK31858: A drug for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, with a licensing agreement potentially worth up to 462 million USD [2] - HSK31679: A drug for NASH, currently in Phase II clinical trials [2] - HSK29116 and HSK40118: PROTAC drugs in Phase I clinical trials [2] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 410 million RMB, 570 million RMB, and 770 million RMB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 71x, 51x, and 38x, respectively [2] Market Share and Growth - The market share of the company's anesthetic drug, Ciprofol, in the intravenous anesthesia market increased from 4% in 2022 to 11% in 2023 [2] - The company expects significant growth in its anesthesia and pain management segment, with projected revenue growth rates of 64.8%, 51.3%, and 28.1% for 2024-2026 [7] Revenue Breakdown by Segment - Anesthesia and Pain Management: Expected to contribute 1.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 64.8% [8] - Parenteral Nutrition: Projected to generate 615.2 million RMB in 2024, with a steady growth rate of 4% [8] - Oncology and Anti-Emetic: Expected to grow at 15% annually, reaching 322 million RMB by 2026 [8] - Antibiotics: Projected to grow at 7% annually, reaching 145.7 million RMB by 2026 [8] Key Financial Metrics - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 3.355 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.587 billion RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of 19.93% [3] - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 8.81% in 2023 to 13.71% in 2026 [10] - The ROE is expected to rise from 7.09% in 2023 to 12.98% in 2026 [10]