Guotou Securities·2024-04-24 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy - A" [3] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 report highlights a slight decline in net profit and operating profit, but a significant improvement in new business value (NBV) driven by strong sales of savings-type products and reforms in individual insurance channels [1] - The overall performance of the life insurance segment is stable and of high quality, with a notable increase in NBV by 20.7% year-on-year [1] - The property and casualty insurance segment shows an increase in the combined cost ratio to 99.6%, influenced by weather-related claims and increased travel activity [1] - The investment performance remains steady, with an annualized comprehensive investment return of 3.1% and a net investment return of 3.0% for Q1 2024 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 36.7 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year, and an operating profit of 38.7 billion yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year [1] - The new business value (NBV) reached 12.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.7% increase year-on-year on a comparable basis [1] - The life and health insurance business generated an operating profit of 27.3 billion yuan, up 2.2% year-on-year [1] Insurance Segment Analysis - The life insurance segment's NBV margin improved by 6.5 percentage points to 22.8%, with individual insurance channel agents showing a 56.4% increase in per capita NBV [1] - The property and casualty insurance segment reported service income of 80.6 billion yuan, a 5.7% increase year-on-year, but faced a 14.3% decline in operating profit due to increased claims [1] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a diversified investment structure, with debt-related products accounting for 8.2% of total investment assets and real estate investments at 4.2% [2] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are estimated at 6.06 yuan, 7.09 yuan, and 8.19 yuan respectively, with a target price of 48.09 yuan based on a 0.6x 2024 P/EV [2][3]