农林牧渔2024Q1持仓分析：24Q1重仓环比略降，低于行业标配

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a slight underweight compared to the standard allocation ratio [2][14]. Core Insights - As of the end of Q1 2024, the heavy position in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stocks is 1.66%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points (pct) from the previous quarter, but an increase of 0.24 pct year-on-year. This allocation is slightly below the industry average by 0.05 pct, and above the historical average of 1.49% [6][8]. - The livestock sector shows stable allocation, while planting and feed sectors have decreased. Specifically, the livestock sector's heavy position is 1.10%, down 0.01 pct from the previous quarter but up 0.43 pct year-on-year. The feed and animal health sectors saw declines of 0.04 pct and 0.03 pct, respectively, while the planting sector's heavy position decreased by 0.04 pct due to strong global grain production expectations [8][10]. - The top 15 heavy positions remain stable, with pig farming stocks continuing to be a market focus. Notable increases in allocation include Muyuan Foods and Shennong Group, while leading seed companies like Longping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong saw reductions [10][11]. Summary by Sections Heavy Position Analysis - The heavy position in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery stocks is 1.66% as of Q1 2024, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous quarter [6][7]. - Livestock allocation remains stable at 1.10%, while feed and planting sectors have seen declines [8][9]. Investment Recommendations - For the livestock sector, there is significant potential for growth as the pig cycle trend solidifies. Recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others. The white feather broiler sector shows attractive valuation opportunities [14]. - The focus on livestock support sectors (feed, animal health) has decreased, but there remains considerable upside potential as downstream recovery continues. Key stocks to watch include Haida Group and others [14]. - The planting sector's attention has waned due to price cycle declines, with weather changes expected to impact price forecasts. Recommended stocks include Suqian Agricultural Development and others [14].