Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock performance relative to the benchmark index [20]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 2.006 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 106 million yuan, down 36.6% year-on-year [14][18]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed signs of recovery with a revenue of 529 million yuan, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 21 million yuan, up 55.1% year-on-year [14][17]. - The company is expected to see continued improvement in orders and revenue in the upcoming quarters, particularly in Q2, which is typically a peak ordering season [14][17]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Breakdown: In 2023, the revenue from OBM, ODM, and trade models was 431 million yuan, 799 million yuan, and 769 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.8%, -34.7%, and +4.9% [1]. - Gross Margin: The gross margins for OBM, ODM, and trade models were 23.5%, 15.3%, and 10.0%, showing improvements of 1.9, 1.7, and 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - Profitability Metrics: The gross profit margin for 2023 was 15.0%, with a net profit margin of 5.3%. The first quarter of 2024 saw a gross margin of 12.8% and a net profit margin of 4.1% [16][18]. Future Projections - Revenue Forecast: Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.809 billion yuan, 3.425 billion yuan, and 4.319 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a significant recovery and growth trajectory [18]. - Net Profit Forecast: Expected net profits for the same period are 150 million yuan, 196 million yuan, and 244 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.5X, 13.5X, and 10.8X [18][17]. - Operational Efficiency: The company is focusing on improving operational efficiency, with a decrease in the expense ratio to 7.0% in Q1 2024, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [16]. Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing a recovery in its adult and children's bicycle segments, while the electric bicycle segment is expected to improve as inventory pressures ease [15][17]. - The cross-border e-commerce segment is showing strong growth, contributing positively to the overall revenue despite challenges in the ODM model [1][14].
代工订单回暖，跨境电商高增