牧高笛更新报告：自有品牌快速增长，静待外销订单拐点

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a target price of 39.68 CNY, down from a previous forecast of 66.65 CNY [1][14]. Core Views - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its proprietary brand, while facing pressure on export orders due to downstream destocking. It is anticipated that as destocking concludes, export business will recover, leading to significant improvement in performance [1][14]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The EPS forecast for 2023-2025 has been adjusted to 2.01, 2.48, and 2.95 CNY respectively, reflecting a slight decrease compared to previous estimates [1][14]. - The company is expected to maintain a growth rate that is slightly below the industry average PE ratio [1][14]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,478 million CNY, with a growth forecast to 1,717 million CNY in 2024 [1][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 134 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 166 million CNY in 2024 [1][14]. - The company’s operating profit margin is forecasted to be 11.3% in 2023, improving to 12.5% in 2024 [1][14]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the outdoor camping equipment sector, with a diverse product line that includes tents, sleeping bags, and outdoor apparel [1][14]. - The domestic tourism market is expected to grow, with 1.19 billion domestic trips anticipated in 2024, which may benefit the company's sales [1][14]. Operational Insights - The proprietary brand business has shown a year-on-year growth of 29.3% in the first three quarters of 2023, indicating strong internal sales performance [1][14]. - The ODM/OEM business, however, has faced a decline of 23.3% year-on-year due to high inventory levels among overseas clients [1][14]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be 16.18 for 2023, decreasing to 13.12 by 2025, indicating a potential undervaluation compared to peers [1][14]. - The dividend yield is expected to increase from 3.7% in 2023 to 6.3% by 2025, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [1][14].