盈利表现稳健，新业务价值率超预期，维持买入

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.00, indicating a potential upside of 48.3% from the current closing price of HKD 34.40 [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The company's earnings performance is stable, with new business value exceeding expectations. In Q1 2024, the operating profit after tax (OPAT) decreased by 3% year-on-year, primarily due to declines in technology, property and casualty insurance, and asset management sectors. However, life and health insurance grew by 2.2%, and banking increased by 2.3%, partially offsetting the declines [1][2]. - The new business value saw a significant increase of 20.7% year-on-year, with the new business value rate rising to 22.8%, up by 6.5 percentage points, driven by a shift towards protection-type products and longer payment cycles [2][3]. - The comprehensive cost ratio for property and casualty insurance increased to 99.6%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point rise year-on-year, while investment yields slightly declined [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 36,709 million, down 4.3% year-on-year, while OPAT was RMB 38,709 million, a decrease of 3.0% [8]. - The life and health insurance segment reported OPAT of RMB 27,288 million, a growth of 2.2% year-on-year, while the property insurance segment saw a decline of 14.3% [8]. - The asset management sector turned profitable compared to Q4 2023, with expectations of improved profitability moving forward [1][3]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report projects an increase in new business value for 2024E to RMB 35,359 million, reflecting a 14.2% adjustment from previous estimates [8]. - The new business value rate is expected to rise to 23.6% for 2024E, indicating continued improvement in product structure and profitability [8][9]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024E is set at RMB 98,288 million, representing a 14.7% year-on-year growth [9].