Soochow Securities·2024-04-25 04:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in overall retail sales for Q1 2024, with improvements in inventory and discount levels [3][4] - The company is a leading domestic sportswear brand, facing challenges in 2023 due to inventory pressures and issues related to unauthorized sales, but has shown signs of recovery in early 2024 [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 25,803 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.31%. For 2023, it is projected to be 27,598 million, with a growth of 6.96%. The forecast for 2024 is 29,191 million, reflecting a growth of 5.77% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2022 was 4,064 million, with a decline of 21.58% in 2023 to 3,187 million. The forecast for 2024 is 3,390 million, indicating a recovery with a growth of 6.37% [2] Retail and Sales Performance - For Q1 2024, the company's overall retail sales (excluding young segment) showed a low single-digit year-on-year growth, while same-store sales declined in the mid-single digits [3] - The number of stores as of Q1 2024 was 6,214, with a net increase of 8 stores compared to Q1 2023 [3] Inventory and Discounts - The inventory turnover ratio improved to just over 4 months in Q1 2024, compared to 4-4.5 months in Q1 2023, indicating healthier inventory levels [4] - Discounts for both online and offline channels showed a low single-digit improvement year-on-year, with offline discounts averaging around 60% [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains a revenue growth guidance of mid-single digits for 2024, with a profit margin expected to remain in the low double digits [4] - The net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted down to 33.9 billion and 37.8 billion respectively, with a projected PE ratio of 14/12 for the respective years [4]