证券业务韧性明显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 18.62 CNY, while the current price is 12.45 CNY [6]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2024 was 2.456 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.95 billion CNY, down 3.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company's self-operated business revenue showed significant growth, increasing by 64% year-on-year to 810 million CNY, driven by a favorable bond market [2]. - The fund distribution business faced challenges due to a cooling market, with new equity fund issuance down 45% year-on-year, impacting the company's fund distribution income [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the average daily trading volume of stock funds was 903.7 billion CNY, up 3.9% year-on-year, while the average margin balance was 1.54 trillion CNY, down 4.3% year-on-year [2]. - The company achieved a total commission income of 1.182 billion CNY in Q1 2024, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, attributed to a decrease in commission rates [2]. - The net interest income for Q1 2024 was 522 million CNY, down 5.4% year-on-year, with the scale of funds lent reaching 44.8 billion CNY, an increase of 12.4% year-on-year [2]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 11.1 billion CNY, 12.1 billion CNY, and 13.7 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 9%, and 13% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.434 billion CNY, 9.365 billion CNY, and 10.773 billion CNY for the same years, with growth rates of 3%, 11%, and 15% [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.53 CNY, 0.59 CNY, and 0.68 CNY, respectively [4].