资金制约，结构分化

Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI new orders rebounded above 50, while non-manufacturing performance remains weak[3] - Construction PMI new orders show a significant downward trend, indicating a decline in construction activity[3] Construction Sector Insights - Real estate sales performance remains sluggish, with negative growth expanding in the first quarter[9] - Existing home sales are significantly better than pre-sold homes, with existing home sales accounting for about 20%[9] - High existing home inventory is straining real estate companies' finances, suppressing confidence in pre-sold home purchases[9] Financial Conditions - Industrial enterprises are experiencing prolonged accounts receivable periods, indicating cash flow issues[100] - The need for central government support for infrastructure funding is emphasized, as local government land revenue and bond issuance are insufficient[11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in manufacturing shows a cumulative year-on-year increase, but the overall investment climate remains cautious[6] - The first quarter saw a significant drop in net central government investment, with expectations of increased investment in the second quarter[11] Market Outlook - The expectation of a soft landing for the U.S. economy is strengthening, with manufacturing recovery benefiting domestic manufacturing resilience[15][32] - The potential for a "second stagflation" impact is being closely monitored, as inflation remains a key concern[96]