2023全年凯力唯实现超高速增长，后续放量有望加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [16] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2023, with expectations for continued acceleration in sales volume [23] - The core product, Kai Li Wei, has shown robust clinical demand, with revenue growth expected to remain strong despite some short-term fluctuations [23] - The company is advancing its research pipeline, with promising developments in antiviral and immune therapies [23] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: The company reported revenue of 1,412 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%. Forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1,865 million, 2,434 million, and 3,130 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 32.1%, 30.5%, and 28.6% [2][23] - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117 million yuan in 2023, up 39.7% year-on-year. Projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 158 million, 209 million, and 282 million yuan, with growth rates of 35.5%, 32.4%, and 34.8% [2][23] - EPS: The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was 0.68 yuan, with forecasts of 0.92 yuan, 1.22 yuan, and 1.65 yuan for the following years [2][23] - Profitability Ratios: The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 7.7% in 2023 to 12.5% by 2026 [2][23] Product Performance Summary - Chemical Drugs: Revenue from chemical drugs grew by 92.66% in 2023, with Kai Li Wei's sales increasing by over 200% [23] - Biological Products: Revenue from biological products decreased by 12.68%, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [23] - Therapeutic Areas: Revenue from antiviral treatments reached 1.086 billion yuan, up 21.25%, while the anti-pulmonary fibrosis segment saw a 70.92% increase [23] Research and Development - The company invested 173 million yuan in R&D in 2023, representing 12.22% of revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 12.45% [23] - Key projects include the functional cure for hepatitis B, which is expected to enter the market in 2025 [23] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 48.9 in 2023 to 20.2 by 2026, reflecting expected growth in earnings [2][23] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.5 by 2026 [2][23]