Kawin Technology(SH:688687) Guoxin Securities·2024-04-25 09:01Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][27]. Core Insights - The core product, Kailiwei, has expanded its insurance coverage to include all major genotypes of hepatitis C in China, with a significant patient base and room for penetration growth. The product's sales revenue has increased by over 200% year-on-year [3][4][29]. - The company is progressing with its Phase 3 clinical trials for the hepatitis B treatment, Paiyisheng, which is expected to submit an NDA application within the year. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 17.13 billion, 22.13 billion, and 26.80 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 1.39 billion, 2.00 billion, and 2.59 billion yuan [3][6][27]. - The price range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 29.85 and 31.34 yuan, indicating an upside potential of 8% to 13% from the current stock price of 27.70 yuan [3][27]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 14.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, and a net profit of 1.17 billion yuan, up 39.7% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 2.13 billion yuan, a 10.3% increase year-on-year [6][9][29]. - The antiviral product segment generated 10.86 billion yuan in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2%. The anti-inflammatory products maintained revenue at 1.58 billion yuan, while the anti-pulmonary fibrosis products saw a 70.9% increase, reaching 1.44 billion yuan [6][29][51]. Product Overview - The company focuses on antiviral and immune-related diseases, with several commercialized products including Kailiwei (the first direct antiviral drug for hepatitis C in China) and Jinxuxi (the only interferon effervescent tablet in the country) [3][16][39]. - The company is also developing a combination of drugs targeting functional cure for hepatitis B, utilizing various technological platforms including recombinant proteins, monoclonal antibodies, and siRNA [20][39].