HISENSE H.A.(000921) 国联证券·2024-04-25 09:30Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a target price of 42.80 CNY [3][4] Core Views - Strong Q1 2024 performance with revenue of 23.486 billion CNY, up 20.87% YoY, and net profit of 981 million CNY, up 59.48% YoY [1] - Revenue growth exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in home appliances, air conditioning, and refrigeration businesses [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 21.6% due to product structure optimization and increased share of self-owned brands [2] - Net profit margin increased by 1.0 percentage points, supported by revenue growth and lower tax rates [2] - Long-term growth potential is supported by self-branded overseas expansion, diversified business lines, and optimization of supply chain efficiency [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1 2024 revenue: 23.486 billion CNY, up 20.87% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 net profit: 981 million CNY, up 59.48% YoY [1] - Q1 2024 non-GAAP net profit: 838 million CNY, up 60.89% YoY [1] - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 94.726 billion CNY, 104.783 billion CNY, and 115.915 billion CNY, with YoY growth rates of 11% each year [3] - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 3.494 billion CNY, 4.038 billion CNY, and 4.646 billion CNY, with YoY growth rates of 23%, 16%, and 15% respectively [3] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin: 21.63% in Q1 2024, up 0.51 percentage points YoY [9] - Net profit margin: 4.18% in Q1 2024, up 1.01 percentage points YoY [9] - ROE: 21.24% in 2024E, expected to decline slightly to 19.69% by 2026E [10] - PE ratio: 13.9x for 2024E, expected to decline to 10.4x by 2026E [4][10] Business Segment Performance - Refrigeration and washing business: Estimated revenue growth of around 40% YoY, with faster growth in exports [2] - Home air conditioning: Double-digit revenue growth, with similar growth rates in domestic and export markets [2] - Central air conditioning: Revenue growth close to double digits [2] - Automotive thermal management (Sanden): Slight revenue growth [2] Cash Flow and Liquidity - Operating cash flow decreased YoY in Q1 2024, mainly due to increased raw material inventory [3] - Current ratio: 1.2 in 2024E, expected to improve to 1.4 by 2026E [10] - Quick ratio: 0.8 in 2024E, expected to improve to 1.1 by 2026E [10] Valuation and Forecast - Target price: 42.80 CNY, based on 17x 2024E PE [3] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: 2.52 CNY, 2.91 CNY, and 3.35 CNY, with a CAGR of 18% [3] - EV/EBITDA: 4.8x for 2024E, expected to decline to 2.8x by 2026E [4][10]