BIYI(603215) 申万宏源·2024-04-25 10:31Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's investment rating to "Outperform" from a previous higher rating [19] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance fell short of expectations, with revenue declining 15% YoY to RMB 320 million and net profit attributable to parent company plunging 78% YoY to RMB 10 million [18] - Profitability was under pressure in Q1 2024, with gross margin dropping 8.14 percentage points YoY to 12.95% and net profit margin declining 9.14 percentage points to 3.12% [19] - The company is expanding into new product categories and overseas production capacity to drive future growth, including successful development of coffee machines and ongoing R&D for ice makers, milk frothers, and environmental appliances [12] - The company is investing USD 50 million to build a kitchen appliance factory in Thailand, expected to provide 7 million units of production capacity for air fryers, coffee machines, and future small appliance categories [12] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue grew 4% YoY to RMB 1.56 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company increasing 13% to RMB 202 million [17] - Q4 2023 saw revenue decline 33% YoY to RMB 300 million and net profit attributable to parent company drop 44% to RMB 26 million [18] - 2023 gross margin improved 1.66 percentage points to 21.21%, with net profit margin rising 1.04 percentage points to 12.92% [19] - The company's air fryer business generated RMB 1.182 billion in revenue in 2023, accounting for 75.77% of total revenue and growing 8.13% YoY [12] Financial Projections - 2024 revenue is forecast to grow 16.5% to RMB 1.817 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company expected to increase 9.8% to RMB 222 million [4] - 2025 revenue is projected to reach RMB 2.097 billion (+15.4% YoY), with net profit attributable to parent company estimated at RMB 245 million (+10.7% YoY) [4] - 2026 revenue is anticipated to grow 16% to RMB 2.432 billion, with net profit attributable to parent company forecast to rise 13.4% to RMB 278 million [4] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable around 21.4-22% from 2024-2026 [4] Valuation - The company's current PE ratio is 16x for 2023, with projected PE ratios of 14x for 2024, 13x for 2025, and 11x for 2026 [4] - The stock has 19.9% upside potential based on a 2024 PE of 14x compared to peers' average of 17x [19] - The stock's price-to-book ratio is 2.8x, with a dividend yield based on the most recent dividend of 1.17% [15] Market Performance - The stock's 52-week high/low is RMB 24.53/12.8, with a recent closing price of RMB 16.65 [15] - The company's market capitalization is RMB 1.173 billion [15] - The stock has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past year [16]