Xinyangfeng Agricultural(SZ:000902) Guohai Securities·2024-04-25 13:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [25][32]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in sales due to delayed channel stocking, but the profitability of compound fertilizers is showing signs of recovery [2][58]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 158.61 billion, 169.81 billion, and 177.82 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [32][34]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing projects that are expected to create new profit growth points, particularly in the phosphate mining and new energy sectors [7][31]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.335 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 24.52%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.74% [26][52]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 344 million, down 15.83% year-on-year but up 58.99% quarter-on-quarter [26][52]. - The company's ROE for Q1 2024 was 3.52%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points year-on-year, but an increase of 1.23 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [26][52]. Profitability Metrics - The sales gross margin for Q1 2024 was 17.98%, an increase of 2.25 percentage points year-on-year and 2.34 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [26][52]. - The sales net margin was 10.27%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.93 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.99 percentage points [26][52]. Market Conditions - The report notes that the price of ammonium phosphate averaged 3078 yuan/ton in Q1 2024, down 6.03% year-on-year and 6.85% quarter-on-quarter, while the price of compound fertilizers averaged 2620 yuan/ton, down 13.44% year-on-year [52][58]. - The price spread for ammonium phosphate increased by 24.24% year-on-year, while the price spread for compound fertilizers showed a recovery trend [52][58]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased phosphate mining capacity and a complete upstream and downstream industrial chain, enhancing its integrated advantages [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit will grow to 1.346 billion, 1.704 billion, and 2.013 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.88, 8.59, and 7.27 [32][34].