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强势成长,大超预期
600938CNOOC(600938) 国金证券·2024-04-26 02:00

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in oil and gas production, with total production reaching 180 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.88% [2][14]. - The company has increased its capital expenditure to 28.72 billion RMB in Q1 2024, up 16.81% year-on-year, supporting its oil and gas production efforts [2][14]. - The average realized price for oil liquids increased by 6.20% year-on-year to 78.75 USD per barrel, despite a slight decline in Brent crude oil prices [3][9]. - The company has successfully managed its oil production costs, which decreased by 2.23% year-on-year to 27.59 USD per barrel [3][13]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q1 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 1114.68 billion RMB, a 14.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 397.19 billion RMB, up 23.70% year-on-year [8][24]. Production and Capital Expenditure - The company is responding to calls for increased reserves and production, maintaining high levels of capital expenditure, which is expected to support ongoing production growth [2][14]. - New projects, including the Suizhong 26-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields, are progressing ahead of schedule, with peak production expected in 2025 [2][14]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2024-2026 have been raised by 15%, 14%, and 14% respectively, with projected net profits of 155 billion RMB, 160 billion RMB, and 165 billion RMB for those years [2][24]. - The corresponding earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are expected to be 3.26 RMB, 3.36 RMB, and 3.47 RMB, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.85X, 8.58X, and 8.31X [2][24].