China Post Securities·2024-04-26 05:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [6]. Core Insights - The company's core businesses have shown recovery growth, particularly in the life insurance sector, with a new business value (NBV) increase of over 20% [3][4]. - Despite a slight decline in overall revenue and profit year-on-year, the three main business segments—life and health insurance, property insurance, and banking—have collectively shown a slight increase in operating profit [3][4]. - The company is expected to continue its positive trajectory, emerging from a low point, with significant advantages as one of the leading insurance firms in the industry [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2,455.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23%, and a net profit of 367.09 billion yuan, down 4.3% [3]. - The life and health insurance segment achieved an NBV of 128.90 billion yuan, with a comparable year-on-year increase of 20.7% [3]. - The property insurance segment reported a revenue of 806.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [3]. - The banking segment's net profit was 149.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, despite a decline in operating revenue and net interest margin [3]. - The investment scale reached over 4.93 trillion yuan by the end of March, marking a 4.4% increase since the beginning of the year [3]. Earnings Forecast and Financial Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 5.53, 6.21, and 6.80 yuan per share, respectively [4]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the same period are 7.22, 6.42, and 5.87 [4]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 2.00% in 2024, with a net profit growth rate of 14.29% [4].