JONJEE(SH:600872) Tai Ping Yang·2024-04-26 05:30Investment Rating - Buy/Upgrade with a target price of 33.1, compared to the previous closing price of 29.30 [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 profit exceeded expectations, driven by the gradual release of supply chain optimization benefits [1] - Revenue in Q1 2024 reached 1.485 billion yuan, up 8.64% YoY, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 239 million yuan, up 59.70% YoY [2] - The gross profit margin of the company's subsidiary, Meixian, increased by 6.08 percentage points YoY to 37.28% in Q1 2024, mainly due to optimized procurement costs and a higher proportion of high-margin products [2] - The company's net profit margin in Q1 2024 was 18.21%, up 5.91 percentage points YoY, reflecting stable cost control [2] - The company's three-year plan and equity incentive scheme are in line with expectations, indicating confidence in high-speed and steady growth [2] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - Q1 2024 revenue: 1.485 billion yuan, up 8.64% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company: 239 million yuan, up 59.70% YoY [2] - Q1 2024 non-GAAP net profit: 237 million yuan, up 63.91% YoY [2] - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026: 5.756 billion yuan, 6.705 billion yuan, and 7.912 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12.0%, 16.5%, and 18.0% respectively [3] - Forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026: 746 million yuan, 940 million yuan, and 1.148 billion yuan, with growth rates of -56.01%, 25.93%, and 22.13% respectively [3] Product and Regional Breakdown - Q1 2024 revenue breakdown by product: soy sauce (947 million yuan, up 13.4% YoY), chicken essence and powder (181 million yuan, up 16.8% YoY), edible oil (101 million yuan, down 5.5% YoY), and other products (213 million yuan, down 0.3% YoY) [2] - Q1 2024 revenue breakdown by region: East (372 million yuan, up 24.5% YoY), South (522 million yuan, up 2.6% YoY), Central-West (324 million yuan, up 9.9% YoY), and North (225 million yuan, up 7.6% YoY) [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - Q1 2024 gross profit margin: 37.28%, up 6.08 percentage points YoY [2] - Q1 2024 net profit margin: 18.21%, up 5.91 percentage points YoY [2] - Forecasted gross profit margin for 2024-2026: 33.40%, 34.20%, and 34.50% respectively [4] - Forecasted net profit margin for 2024-2026: 12.97%, 14.02%, and 14.51% respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - Forecasted PE ratios for 2024-2026: 30.83X, 24.48X, and 20.04X respectively [3] - Forecasted PB ratios for 2024-2026: 4.22X, 3.60X, and 3.05X respectively [4] - Forecasted PS ratios for 2024-2026: 4.00X, 3.43X, and 2.91X respectively [4] Strategic Outlook - The company plans to achieve its growth targets through brand marketing, R&D innovation, operational optimization, and investment acquisitions [2] - The company's distributor network expanded by 97 to 2,181 in Q1 2024, indicating steady progress in channel expansion [2] - The company's supply chain optimization strategy, including annual/quarterly bidding for procurement and supplier consolidation, has contributed to cost savings [2]