NHD(SZ:002946)2024-04-26 06:02Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [12][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.8%, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, up 19.3% year-on-year [19]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.61 billion yuan, a 3.66% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 90 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 46.93% year-on-year [19][21]. - The company's gross profit margin improved to 29.4% in Q1 2024, driven by declining raw milk costs [20][21]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 10.99 billion yuan in 2023 to 12.24 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.4% [21]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is 547 million yuan, representing a 26.9% increase compared to 2023 [21]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 27.6% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 28.2% by 2026 [21]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on expanding its fresh milk business under its "Fresh Strategy," leveraging acquisitions to create a brand matrix and nationwide distribution [12][19]. - The introduction of new products, particularly in the low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt segments, has contributed to revenue growth, with new products accounting for 12% of total sales in 2023 [28]. - The company is enhancing its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, which saw over 15% revenue growth in 2023, with e-commerce sales increasing by more than 40% [28]. Market Trends and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a growing consumer preference for low-temperature fresh milk, which is expected to drive future sales growth [6][12]. - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with potential risks from market competition and food safety incidents [6][12].