Guohai Securities·2024-04-26 06:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the optimization of coal sales structure and significant improvement in coal chemical costs [1] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 45.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.97 billion yuan, down 30.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to maintain stable performance due to a high proportion of long-term contracts and upcoming production increases from new mines [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Coal Business - In Q1 2024, the company produced 32.73 million tons of commodity coal, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, with sales volume at 63.87 million tons, down 14.6% year-on-year - The sales structure has improved, with self-produced coal accounting for 51% of total sales, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year - The average selling price of self-produced coal was 598 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton (-10.9%), while the cost per ton increased by 6.8% to 291 yuan/ton, leading to a gross profit margin of 51.3%, down 8 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] Coal Chemical Business - The company saw improvements in unit profitability for most coal chemical products despite price declines - In Q1 2024, polyethylene and polypropylene sales were 191,000 tons (+3.8%) and 182,000 tons (+0.6%), respectively, with selling prices of 7,182 yuan/ton (-1.0%) and 6,498 yuan/ton (-5.2%) - Urea sales were 551,000 tons (-14.6%) with a selling price of 2,237 yuan/ton (-17.7%), while methanol sales were 396,000 tons (-21.9%) with a selling price of 1,675 yuan/ton (-8.6%) [5][6] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 194.52 billion yuan in 2024, 198.84 billion yuan in 2025, and 201.32 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of +1%, +2%, and +1%, respectively - Net profits attributable to shareholders are expected to be 20.36 billion yuan in 2024, 20.86 billion yuan in 2025, and 21.31 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of +4%, +2%, and +2% [7][8]